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It’s tempting to believe rumors and conspiracy theories because it makes you sound smart But the real test is thinking in probabilities, not possibilities Anything is possible, but if you had to bet money, what would you actually believe? — Long version It is tempting to buy into rumors and conspiracy theories because it makes you sound like a high-IQ person. I’m not saying conspiracy theories cannot be true. In fact, if the recent past is anything to go by, they are often more true than false. However, the real test of your conviction is thinking in terms of probability instead of possibility. For example, I’m hearing people on X say that Trump’s assassination attempt was a PR stunt. Now, is it possible that it was fake? Sure. Anything is possible. But the correct way to think about this is in terms of probability. Is it more probable that it was fake than it being real? That is how you should think. Further, you should ask yourself: if you had to bet money on it being fake versus it being real, where would you put your money? If you start thinking this way about every temptation to believe, you will become a more refined thinker.